On May 19, the 2023-24 Premier League season will officially draw to a close.
It’s been a thrilling campaign, and there could still be some twists in the tale before all is said and done.
Six clubs have sat at the table’s summit at the end of at least one gameweek this season, but for the most part, it’s been a tussle between Manchester City, Arsenal and Liverpool.
After Week 10, one of those three teams has been perched on the top, and with only two points separating them with six games to go, the lead will likely continue to change hands in the final stages.
At the bottom of the table, two teams look almost certain to be playing in the second tier next season, while five others will be sweating on landing in 18th place and joining them on the descent.
Over the campaign, we’ve seen players bounce back with new teams (Kai Havertz), young stars shine (Cole Palmer), and big-money moves who’ve not quite set the pulses racing (Moisés Caicedo).
We’ve surprisingly said goodbye to fewer bosses than usual, with only Sheffield United’s Paul Heckingbottom, Nottingham Forest’s Steve Cooper, and Crystal Palace’s Roy Hodgson departing, though the latter was perhaps mostly because of health concerns.
Meanwhile, new managerial arrivals Ange Postecoglou and Andoni Iraola have already made a mark at Tottenham Hotspur and Bournemouth, respectively.
When it’s all over, fans of English football will have something to fill the void, with Euro 2024, the Copa América and the Olympics set to step into the breach. But, for the next month at least, all eyes will be on the stories yet to be completed in the Premier League.
Who will triumph in one of the closest title chases in years? Which teams will claim the European spots? And which trio will be set to drop down a division next season?
Read on for some educated guesses about how the table might look once the 38th and final game for each club gets to the final whistle.
20th: Sheffield United
Remaining Fixtures: Burnley (h), Manchester United (a), Newcastle United (a), Nottingham Forest (h), Everton (a), Spurs (h)
In a fun wrinkle, all three of these teams play each other in the final weeks of the season. While that should make these otherwise uninspiring fixtures a little more exciting, it shouldn’t do much to change their fates.
While Sheffield United won’t take the ignominious title of being the worst Premier League side in the competition’s history—Derby County fans won’t be happy—they will still wrap up a lackluster campaign at the foot of the table.
19th: Burnley
Remaining Fixtures: Sheffield United (a), Manchester United (a), Newcastle United (h), Spurs (a), Forest (h)
Burnley also has a difficult run-in, and the five-point gap behind the next closest team in Luton Town ahead of Week 34 doesn’t look like it can be closed.
Vincent Kompany may have been a touch too ambitious with his playing philosophy in a season in which he really needed his team to scrap for results. Unfortunately, his first Premier League managerial campaign will end in relegation.
18th: Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest may get a reprieve if the club’s points deduction from breaching Premier League Profit and Sustainability Rules gets reduced or overturned, but if that doesn’t happen, they look destined for a return to the Championship.
Meetings with a title-chasing Manchester City and an inconsistent but superior Chelsea won’t bring any joy. They may yet win the battles with the other two teams expected to depart the Premier League, but points picked up by surrounding teams elsewhere will be what consigns Forest to the drop.
Just Missing the Drop
17th: Luton Town
Remaining Fixtures: Brentford (h), Wolverhampton Wanderers (a), Everton (h), West Ham United (a), Fulham (h)
Luton Town have pulled off some surprising results in their long-awaited return to top-flight football, with a 4-0 victory at home to Brighton & Hove Albion and a 1-0 win against Newcastle United at Kenilworth Road standing out.
They also kept things close against Manchester City (2-1) and Arsenal (4-3) in home defeats and held Liverpool to a 1-1 draw at home, too.
With three of the five remaining fixtures at home, Luton should just cobble enough points together to escape the drop—with all of those matches coming against beatable opponents. Meetings with Wolverhampton Wanderers and West Ham United on the road may also yield a couple of valuable points.
16th: Brentford
Remaining Fixtures: Luton Town (a), Everton (h), Fulham (h), Bournemouth (a), Newcastle (h)
Brentford have disappointed in 2023-24, although that’s no doubt because the Bees were without star striker Ivan Toney for the majority of the campaign.
They have just enough points to not be sweating too much on a relegation fight, partly thanks to the most notable candidates for the drop playing each other, and they only have to face one team in the top 10.
Thomas Frank will be hoping for an improvement next year, and he should get the chance to make it happen.
15th: Crystal Palace
Remaining Fixtures: West Ham (h), Newcastle (h), Fulham (a), Manchester United (h), Wolves (a), Aston Villa (h)
Another middling campaign from a middling club. Crystal Palace have still never finished higher than 10th in the Premier League, despite being in the league for the last 11 seasons and 15 in all.
Things were going nowhere under Roy Hodgson despite relative stability, but the appointment of Oliver Glasner hasn’t brought much more success, with only two wins in seven games.
A 1-0 victory at Liverpool saved them from a true relegation scrap, but with a much tougher run-in on paper than the team predicted to be above them, the Eagles will drop at least one spot from the 14th place they occupy ahead of Week 34.
14th: Everton
Remaining Fixtures: Forest (h), Liverpool (h), Brentford (h), Luton (a), Sheffield United (h), Arsenal (a)
Barring any further points deductions, Everton should remain in the top flight for a 70th consecutive year.
The fixture list looks a little kinder when you consider they have a game in hand, and the visit of local rivals Liverpool will be punctuated by tension among the visiting fans, probably resulting in a draw.
Home meetings with relegation rivals should also seal the necessary points to beat the drop.
Let’s face it, this is Sean Dyche’s bread and butter. He has experience battling against relegation with his Burnley teams, pulling it off more often than not, and he’ll ensure the Toffees’ rearguard will be tough to beat in their remaining games.
Middle of the Pack
13th: Brighton & Hove Albion
Remaining Fixtures: Manchester City (h), Bournemouth (a), Aston Villa (h), Newcastle (a), Chelsea (h), Manchester United (h)
While 13th might seem like a disappointing finish compared to the heights of sixth last season, few Brighton fans would change the experiences they’ve had during this campaign.
A run to the round of 16 in the Europa League for a team that was in League One in the 2010-11 season is no small feat, and a slight domestic dip was probably worth sacrificing for that.
Unfortunately, expectations of finishing any higher than 13th probably won’t be so high considering the opponents they still have left. Only one is in the bottom half of the table, and teams with title and European aspirations will not lay off the accelerator when they face the Seagulls.
12th: Fulham
Remaining Fixtures: Liverpool (h), Palace (h), Brentford (a), Manchester City (h), Luton (a)
Another stable campaign has Fulham safely in midtable, and after losing lethal goalscorer Aleksandar Mitrović to the riches of the Saudi Pro League, the Cottagers should be pretty happy with that.
The emergence of Rodrigo Muniz has made that departure easier to swallow. The Brazilian only started banging in the goals at the turn of the new year, and if the club can keep hold of him, it will be looking for a top-half finish next season.
11th: Bournemouth
Remaining Fixtures: Villa (a), Wolves (a), Brighton (h), Arsenal (a), Brentford (h), Chelsea (a)
Many were skeptical about the appointment of Andoni Iraola, especially after Gary O’Neill’s magic to save the Cherries from relegation last season.
Despite O’Neill likely taking his Wolves side to a better finish than Bournemouth, few can argue that Iraola is doing a sensational job on the south coast.
Dominic Solanke is in the running for the Golden Boot with 17 Premier League goals (nearly triple his best season in the top flight so far), while getting the best out of Antoine Semenyo and Marcos Senesi has also helped to boost the Spaniard’s stock.
Things started slowly, but Iraola soon started to get the results the team’s performances deserved. It will be fascinating to see what he can achieve next season.
10th: West Ham United
Remaining Fixtures: Crystal Palace (a), Liverpool (h), Chelsea (a), Luton (h), Manchester City (a)
While a Europa League quarterfinal following a Europa Conference League win is commendable, West Ham United will still likely be disappointed with how the Premier League season has gone.
Although 10th will be an improvement on last season, silverware doesn’t look likely to follow, and there has been a consistent sense of “could have done better” after domestic fixtures.
With the club still in search of a true out-and-out goalscorer, perhaps those issues can be fixed next year. But that will also depend on keeping players like Lucas Paquetá, Mohammed Kudus and Jarrod Bowen, who may be drawing admiring glances from more formidable clubs.
9th: Wolverhampton Wanderers
Remaining Fixtures: Arsenal (h), Bournemouth (h), Luton (h), Manchester City (a), Crystal Palace (h), Liverpool (a)
Wolverhampton Wanderers were tipped for relegation by many ahead of the campaign, with the loss of Julen Lopetegui from the dugout and Rúben Neves from the middle of park suggesting their best finish for the season would be to scrape survival.But Gary O’Neill has done an excellent job, delivering wins against Manchester City, Tottenham Hotspur (twice) and Chelsea (twice) and getting the most out of players such as Hwang Hee-chan and Matheus Cunha.
While not quite the heights of two consecutive seventh-place finishes in the 2018-19 and 2019-20 campaigns, ninth is still an improvement on last season and a slap in the face for pundits who expected far worse.
European Battle
8th: Manchester United
Remaining Fixtures: Sheffield United (h), Burnley (h), Crystal Palace (a), Arsenal (h), Newcastle United (h), Brighton (a)
An eighth-placed finish would represent Manchester United’s worst-ever season in the Premier League, and their worst performance in the English top flight since 1989-90.
Frankly, the Red Devils will be glad it wasn’t much worse.
United have looked in disarray at times this season, with manager Erik ten Hag seemingly one result from the sack any given week. A minus-1 goal difference after 32 games perhaps speaks to why the season has been so disappointing for the fans.
Injuries, particularly at the back, can perhaps mitigate for some of the results, but even then a club of United’s stature shouldn’t settle for eighth place.
However, if the Premier League is granted five Champions League spots, Europa Conference League games could be on the club’s schedule next season. They could yet earn a spot in the Europa League if they win the FA Cup, though.
7th: Chelsea
Remaining fixtures: Arsenal (a), Villa (a), Spurs (h), West Ham (h), Forest (a), Brighton (a), Bournemouth (h)
Eighth and seventh place in this prediction could flip in a heartbeat because of the erratic form of both clubs, and Chelsea mainly get the nod here because it has a game in hand and a goal difference that is at least in positive figures.
Billions spent on players and another shiny new manager in Mauricio Pochettino brought great promise for the campaign, but it’s been a weird year in west London.
Like United, signs a corner had been turned have quickly been met with a “go back three spaces” square. It might come together next year, but it also seems just as likely it could get worse.
6th: Newcastle United
Remaining Fixtures: Crystal Palace (a), Sheffield United (h), Burnley (a), Brighton (h), Manchester United (a), Brentford (a)
After returning to the Champions League following a fourth-place finish last season, sixth place and Europa League qualification might seem like a bump down in stature. However, Newcastle shouldn’t be too disappointed given the state of the club in the last 10 years.
It’s a kind run of fixtures to the end of the season, but the Magpies won’t quite gather enough points to jump much higher. They’ve rounded into form at a good time, but a 10-point deficit to the closest team above is too much to overcome at this stage of the season.
To consolidate European football and to break up the supposed “big six” again is a decent way to end the year, though.
5th: Tottenham Hotspur
Remaining Fixtures: Arsenal (h), Chelsea (a), Liverpool (a), Burnley (h), Manchester City (h), Sheffield United (a)
Spurs are the most interesting club as we reach the season’s dying embers. They can play both kingmaker and heartbreaker in the next few weeks, with matches against all three title challengers and two of the clubs struggling against relegation.
Finishing fifth is a huge improvement on a drop to eighth last year, and that has been achieved even after the loss of the best English striker in a generation in Harry Kane.
Postecoglou’s positive, aggressive style has brought the Australian a number of new fans, and a place in the Europa League for next season seems just about right for a club steadily climbing back up the ladder. If it ends up being a Champions League spot, though, Spurs won’t complain.
4th: Aston Villa
Remaining Fixtures: Bournemouth (h), Chelsea (h), Brighton (a), Liverpool (h), Crystal Palace (a)
What a campaign it’s been for Aston Villa. Unai Emery was appointed last season to drag the club away from a potential relegation battle, and now he’s taken the team to the brink of a Champions League spot. The Spaniard should just claim it, too.
Villa’s end to the season is a little more serene in terms of upcoming opponents and just a little less congested than Spurs’, so the Midlands club should snag a first appearance at Europe’s top table since 1982—when Villa won the European Cup with a narrow victory over Bayern Munich.
The gap to the three clubs above them remains cavernous, though.
Title Chasers
3rd: Arsenal
Remaining Fixtures: Wolves (a), Chelsea (h), Spurs (a), Bournemouth (h), Manchester United (a), Everton (h)
A rough week for Arsenal has seen them drop points at home to Aston Villa in the league and their Champions League run ended in the quarterfinals against Bayern Munich (and Harry Kane). That’ll be tough to recover from, and a tricky run to close out the year will quash their title dreams, too.
An away trip to giant-killing Wolves just three days after an emotionally draining night in Munich is not the way they’d like to return to domestic action. While a narrow three points might be secured, meetings with London rivals Chelsea and Spurs in the space of eight days will result in crucial ground lost.
Spurs in particular will want to confirm the ruination of their north London rivals’ year, keeping them away from their first Premier League title since 2003.
This won’t be Arsenal’s year.
2nd: Liverpool
Remaining Fixtures: Fulham (a), Everton (a), West Ham (a), Spurs (h), Villa (a), Wolves (h)
It won’t be Liverpool’s year, either.
Finishing second will not have seemed likely at the start of the season, when the club said goodbye to pretty much their entire midfield and welcomed a host of new central players. But, one way or another, they’re fighting at the top of the table. They just won’t win the ultimate battle.
The Merseyside derby with Everton will likely be the Reds’ undoing, with a staunch rearguard, a fierce home crowd and a fraught away end creating the perfect recipe for dropped points. Liverpool also have a habit of underperforming against perceived lesser opposition, and four away games out of six isn’t how it would want to wrap things up.
Jürgen Klopp will wave goodbye to Anfield having come so close yet so far to a second title once again. There’s just a club along the M62 that keeps getting in the way.
1st: Manchester City
Remaining Fixtures: Brighton (a), Forest (a), Wolves (h), Fulham (a), Spurs (a), West Ham (h)
How City recover from a draining 120 minutes and penalties in defeat against Real Madrid in the Champions League quarterfinals will be telling. A meeting with Chelsea in the FA Cup semifinal might act as something of a buffer before getting back to the Premier League grind, but they will still want to win, and that could also go the distance at Wembley Stadium.
Tired legs could be a factor in some surprising results against banana-skin opponents. But, this is Manchester City, and no matter how much Arsenal and Liverpool fans will want them to capitulate, it just doesn’t seem likely they’ll completely lose their way.
It may still go down to the final day, but the Citizens will make it four straight Premier League titles.
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