Game 1 of NBA Playoffs end with the defeated of LA Lakers. Obviously, game 2 will have the same results. I will give you some solid evidences for this:
LA Lakers:
The Lakers resumed their playoff battle with the Denver Nuggets, echoing last season’s Western Conference Finals. Head coach Darvin Ham’s pivotal adjustment was assigning Rui Hachimura to guard two-time MVP Nikola Jokic, freeing up Anthony Davis for more roaming defensive duties. The Lakers capitalized on this matchup advantage from the outset, surging ahead early.
Despite the Lakers holding a narrow three-point lead at halftime, the Nuggets staged a remarkable third-quarter comeback. By the 4:41 mark, Denver had edged ahead by a single point, igniting a pivotal 13-3 run to close out the quarter. Notably, all 10 starters logged significant minutes during this decisive stretch.
D’Angelo Russell struggled with his shooting, going 6-for-20 from the field, prompting speculation about potential adjustments to his role moving forward. Gabe Vincent, limited to just seven minutes in Game 1 due to foul trouble, may see increased playing time to fill the void. Additionally, Taurean Prince, who logged 20 minutes in Game 1, could also feature more prominently in the rotation.
Despite stellar performances from Anthony Davis (32 points, 14 rebounds, five assists, and two blocks) and LeBron James (27 points, six rebounds, eight assists on 10-for-16 shooting), the Lakers fell short against the Nuggets’ formidable lineup. The duo’s heroics weren’t enough to match Denver’s formidable potential, highlighting the Lakers’ need for additional contributions to compete at the highest level.
The Nuggets faced struggles in the first half, taking some time to find their offensive rhythm, but they eventually hit their stride well into the third quarter. Once they did, the Lakers struggled to mount an effective offensive response. D’Angelo Russell’s defensive shortcomings outweighed his contributions on the offensive end, further exacerbating the Lakers’ challenges.
Denver Nuggets:
It’s not surprising that the Nuggets outmatched the Lakers, as they are widely considered a superior and more well-rounded team.
Denver’s ability to limit turnovers was evident, as they only coughed up four throughout the game. Despite ranking ninth in turnover percentage and committing the fifth-fewest turnovers in the league during the regular season, averaging 12.6 per game, turnovers may become a more significant factor as the series progresses. Increased turnovers from Denver could result in more transition opportunities for the Lakers.
Additionally, Jamal Murray is expected to bounce back from his 9-for-24 shooting performance in Game 1, particularly given his proficiency from beyond the arc (4-for-9). Murray’s improved efficiency should bolster the Nuggets’ overall scoring output and lead to a stronger showing as the series shifts to Los Angeles for Games 3 and 4.
Recent facts of both Lakers and Nuggets:
The Nuggets have played 41 games with over 223.5 points scored, their current matchup’s point total, this season.
A total of 58 Lakers games this season (out of 82) have had more than 223.5 total points scored.
The Nuggets and the Lakers combine to average 9.4 more points per game than the over/under of 223.5 set for this game.
The Nuggets and the Lakers have seen their opponents average a combined 3.5 more points per game than the point total of 223.5 set in this matchup.
Denver has won 53, or 73.6%, of the 72 contests in which it was the favorite this year.
Los Angeles has been an underdog in 36 games this season and has come away with the win 15 times (41.7%) in those contests.
Denver has taken each of its last four head-to-head matchups against Los Angeles.
The Nuggets have an advantage against the spread as well (4-0) when hitting the court against the Lakers.
Nuggets Recent Trends
The Nuggets have a 6-4 record against the spread while finishing 7-3 overall over their past 10 games.
Denver has averaged a total of 219.8 combined points in its last 10 games, 3.7 less than this matchup’s total of 223.5.
The Nuggets have played 82 games, with 38 wins against the spread.
Denver has been favored by 7.5 points or more 32 times this season and are 17-15 ATS in those contests.
Nuggets games this year have hit the over 41.5% of the time (34 out of 82 games with a set point total).
The Nuggets average just 2.5 fewer points per game (114.9) than the Lakers allow (117.4).
When Denver scores more than 117.4 points, it is 23-8 against the spread and 28-4 overall.
The Nuggets make 49.6% of their shots from the field this season, which is 2.2 percentage points higher than the Lakers have allowed to their opponents (47.4%).
The Nuggets have done a better job covering the spread in home games (21-19-0) than they have in road games (17-23-1).
Denver has exceeded the over/under more often when playing at home, hitting the over in 18 of 41 home matchups (43.9%). In away games, it has hit the over in 16 of 41 games (39%).
The Nuggets have won a higher percentage of their matchups as a moneyline favorite when playing at home, going 32-8 (.800). When playing away from home as a moneyline favorite, they have a record of 21-11 (.656).
Nuggets Player Props
POINTS O/U
POINTS OVER ODDS
PPG (REG. SEASON)
Nikola Jokic
28.5
+100
26.4
Jamal Murray
24.5
-112
21.2
Michael Porter Jr.
17.5
+100
16.7
Aaron Gordon
13.5
-115
13.9
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
10.5
-125
Lakers Recent Trends
The Lakers have a 4-6 record against the spread while going 6-4 overall over their past 10 contests.
Los Angeles and its opponents have combined to score an average of 230.1 combined points over its last 10 games, 6.6 more than the 223.5 over/under in this matchup.
In the Lakers’ 82 games this year, they have 37 wins against the spread.
So far this season, Los Angeles has been installed as underdogs by a 7.5-point margin or more four times and are 3-1 ATS in those games.
Lakers games this season have eclipsed the over/under 46 times in 82 opportunities (56.1%).
The Lakers score an average of 118 points per game, 8.4 more points than the 109.6 the Nuggets allow to opponents.
Los Angeles has put together a 31-27 ATS record and a 39-20 overall record in games it scores more than 109.6 points.
The Lakers have shot at a 49.9% clip from the field this season, 3.7 percentage points greater than the 46.2% shooting opponents of the Nuggets have averaged.
Against the spread, the Lakers have performed better at home (20-22-0) than on the road (17-22-0).
In terms of the over/under, Los Angeles’ games have gone over less often at home (21 of 42, 50%) than away (25 of 40, 62.5%).
In 2023-24 when moneyline favorites, the Lakers have a better winning percentage at home (.767, 23-7 record) than on the road (.562, 9-7).
Lakers Player Props
POINTS O/U
POINTS OVER ODDS
PPG (REG. SEASON)
LeBron James
25.5
-110
25.7
Anthony Davis
24.5
-108
24.7
D’Angelo Russell
15.5
-112
18.0
Austin Reaves
13.5
-130
15.9
Rui Hachimura
12.5
-102
13.6
Based on Game 1, it’s evident that the Lakers face significant challenges in matching up against the Nuggets. D’Angelo Russell’s performance, characterized by inconsistency and defensive liabilities, further complicates matters for Los Angeles, especially considering his importance as the team’s third-most consistent scorer.
Given these observations, it’s unlikely that the Lakers will be able to compete effectively with the Nuggets throughout the series. If the Lakers do manage to secure a win against the defending champions, it’s unlikely to occur in Denver, further underscoring the uphill battle they face in this matchup.
Conclusion: A loss for Lakers
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